The latest data from the Multiple Listing Service show what most of us suspected - the real estate market in San Francisco is still very tight. In January 2016, housing supply dipped to the lowest level compared to the same period in 2014 and 2015. Similarly, year-over-year median sales prices were up.

Making sense of the story:

  • As indicated in the chart above, between January 2014 and January 2016, the number of single family homes and condos for sale has decreased. Compared to January 2014, there were 34% fewer single family homes for sale this year, and about 16% fewer condominiums. TICs were the only product that saw year-over-year supply increase by 43%. Some of the dip in available homes for sale may be attributed to the traffic and events surrounding Super Bowl 50.  
  • The chart below shows that the median sales price for single-family homes increased by 13% year-over-year. 
  • Condos and lofts increased almost 15% during the same period.
  • TICs showed a lower increase in year-over-year median sales, rising 5%.

Bottom line: As long as the demand in the real estate market is fueled by strong wages and job growth, paired with low inventory, it is unlikely that we'll see a dent in home prices.